Did you know that when you offer solutions your own brain prospers... when you attack others... your brain tends to suffer attack too? It's how the hormones flow.... It's rarely easy to draw out both sides without attack by it can be done.
Jeff Miller submitted today at this site Seeking Alpha: “I admire Barry Ritholtz's enthusiasm for analyzing Street Research -- not peer reviewed and often methodologically flawed. His criticism of Dr. Ed Yardeni's New York Times comments, however, is both incorrect and more than a little unfair. I'll cite specific errors, but first look at Barry's 
argument.
See what Jeff refers to at The Cognitive Bias of Ed Yardeni.
Jeff pointed out specific errors in Barry's post and in the interest of exchanges which get to the deeper parts. The part I’d like to thanks Jeff for … relates to thoughtful alternatives which help to balance out the constant negative criticism we often read, get and give in today’s media:
“1. Yardeni is correct in saying that the original employment report tells us little. It is subject to revisions because not all employers reply on time. Even after the final revision, it is a survey, not a complete count…..
Encouragement and possibility 1 from Jeff: “I have not studied Yardeni's statement that revisions are more likely upward during expansions. It would help explain how Barry wins his "under" bets! If Barry has counter evidence, he did not provide it.”
“2. Barry throws out a figure of 9.4% unemployment using one of the several measures the BLS provides. Last month I challenged him and others using this ploy to provide a time series for comparison.”
Encouragement and possibility 2 from Jeff: “I did the analysis for the one he cited last month from Liscio, showing that the rate was not high by historic standards and also detailing that part-time workers were doing so for non-economic reasons.”
“3. The cognitive bias charge is unwarranted and unfair. It is not like Barry to report Street rumors about someone's career. Let's stick to the analysis….
Encouragement and possibility 3 from Jeff: “A healthy economy will always exhibit sector shifts in employment. Construction was the last big thing and something else will be the next big thing. I described the phenomenon of not understanding "normal" data here.”
Did you know that when we criticize ... use poor tone ... and emphasize problems alone … we add cortisol to a person’s day? In contrast… whenever we find something to encourage or suggest a solution … we add serotonin all around? Ok, what do you see that’s worth a few encouraging jabs in the ribs today? Or what problem do you face that’s worth a stab at solving?
There is a steady drumbeat of positive news/spin/advertising out of Wall Street, whose primary goal is constantly attract assests to manage on a fee basis.
After Wall St comes the gov't, and no matter who is in power GDP is spun to look better than it is and inflation is spun to look lighter than it is. (i.e,, CPI w/o energy)
During the entire crash from 5100 Nasdaq down to 1100, the machinery kept telling you to buy the dips -- during the entire 78% drop.
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | August 2, 2006 5:07 AM | Permalink to Comment