Since I am far weaker in logical mathematical intelligence I rely on 
experts around me to watch the markets and show me what’s up. My own Brain Based Business does well, and I am glad for, that because I might be in trouble if I needed more math intelligence to keep business up. I deviate….
Over at Seeking Alpha Network… financial expert Jack Miller shows how Conditions are Ripe for a Market Surge. While Jack is not sure if Thursday’s huge rally is the start of the BIG BULL I have been writing about. I don’t know! Here’s what Jack does know:
- He knows stocks are cheap relative to bonds and real estate.
- He knows public investors are as negative toward the market as they typically get before big rallies.
- I know the FOMC hinted that rates have gone about as high as they need to go.
- He knows that bond market indicators show the probability of lower long rates in the months ahead.
- I know that lower bond rates support higher stock prices.
- He knows that there is more oil in storage than at any other time in the history of the world.
- I know that the law of supply and demand should bring oil prices down.
- He knows that the price of commodities tend to trade together, if oil goes down it is likely that aluminum will go down.
- I know that lower commodity prices would dramatically decrease the cost of many companies, such as Dell (DELL), Goodyear (GT), Continental Airlines (CAL), Ford Motor (F), Corning (GLW) and Wal-Mart (WMT).
- He knows that current mortgage rates are causing a dramatic slow down in home sales.
- I know that consumers have cut back significantly on discretionary spending, such as trips to the beach and amusements while at the beach.
- He knows that the interest rate ball has been kicked to the other mans court,
- I know that the Globalization of markets has dramatically reduced the risk of high inflation but has made the FOMC less powerful.
- He knows that corporate profits continue to surprise to the upside.
- I know that a different kind of investment works in the second half of an economic cycle.
- He knows the evidence is clear that “first half” investments are dying.
- I know the amount of spending on new communications technology is going to be huge over the next few years.
- He knows that Google (GOOG) has shown again that the Internet allows innovative companies to introduce win-win-win services; providing numerous benefits to consumers while giving the service provider a high profit margin.
- He knows that tax law changes typically occur at or near the start of phase one of the four stage real estate cycle and it is clear that phase 4 is over or nearly over.
- He knows many more things but there are many more things that I do not know; knowing what the market will do in the short run is one of the things I do not know. However, I am very confident that, like the last 200 years on average, stocks will outperform most other investments over the next 30 years.
- He knows that the perception of most people is that stocks are more risky than bonds, while the evidence shows that over 30 years bonds are more risky than stocks.
- He knows that inflation will gnaw away the principle of CD’s, Bonds, Insurance Equity and other fixed incomes.
- He knows that hiding gold talents in the ground is not the act of a wise person.
Jack admits that “many things could happen, good and bad.” Yet, Jack does not know if the market will go up today or on any given day … it’s enough for me he knows how “conditions are ripe for a strong market surge in the months ahead.” Wow – that’s just the right “knows” to make me glad to be in business today! Thanks Jack – you have sifted through a lot of financial facts to help a person not so good with math intelligence… to know what to look for! Hope you’re right … but I’ll keep watching the latest figures you know if not….
Comment Preview